Will LDS Dump GOP, if GOP Dumps Romney?

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The SL Tribune asks if conservative Mormons will bolt the Republican party if Mitt Romney gets the boot in the 2008 GOP primaries because of his religion. It’s an interesting but ultimately pointless article that may ultimately further his interests by airing this issue to death (has that happened already?) before the 2008 race really begins.

However, it will be interesting to see how Gov. Romney performs in the South, especially among evangelicals. I get frustrated that many evangelicals seem uninterested in acknowledging like-minded conservative Mormons and question politicians like Romney solely because of his religious convictions. That said, Romney has shown well in appearances in South Carolina and a recent straw poll in Tennessee. But such anecdotal evidence should just underscore how useless speculation over 2008 is, even if it fun.

Regardless what becomes Romney’s fate the LDS vote is solidly conservative as is Utah’s. Since Utah is the only area where the LDS vote is appreciable let me use it as a proxy when discussing the general LDS vote:

• As I see it, Utah became solidly Republican when the Democrats abandoned any hospitality to socially conservative viewpoints starting in the ’60s.
• The LDS vote is not exactly the most sought out of minority voting blocs. While it still probably comprises the majority vote of Utah that still is only five electoral votes. So even if there was a serious threat that the LDS vote could swing Democratic, third-party, or stay at home, it’s probably not going to keep Karl Rove or his counterparts up at night. There are bigger states to fry.
• Utah is arguably the reddest of red states, still giving President Bush over 50% support. Utah is so red that President Clinton came in third in Utah in 1992.
• As long as there is a strong two-party system, the general LDS vote has few choices outside of the GOP. If the Democratic party continues to appear hostile to religious and socially conservative views, my guess is that the LDS vote will continue to be reliably GOP.

Ultimately, I resent the appeal to identity politics. While Mormons may generally vote alike, it’s because they happen to share many of the same views just as they do with other socially and religious conservatives. While some LDS may flock to Romney just because he is LDS, I doubt that will be enough for him to win most Mormon votes. Alternatively, I hope that LDS voters don’t change their vote out of spite just because their religious sensibilities are offended and regardless of their political views.